Bitcoin Predictions – February 2018

“I’ve found that when the market’s going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won’t get there by reading ‘Now is the time to buy.’ ” – Peter Lynch

 

January Analysis

I started the last BPP by saying cryptomarkets move faster than normal. Oh the irony. January has been one of the slowest month in crypto, particularly in Bitcoin which has been breaking support and not breaking resistances. With that said, a lot of coins did do their

What I was wrong

I was bullish in Bitcoin, I thought we would wait a bit until investors came back from vacations, but as they say, in a bull market, everyone is an optimistic. I sure was, and it was wrong of me.

Bitcoin’s ATH in January was $17,600.00 while at the time of this writing, was trading at $9,455.00 a nearly 47% decrease in price. Far from the $22,000-27,000 I expected.

What I was right

I did say to watch out for “Second week of january for dips.” and sure enough, from January 15th to 17th, Bitcoin lost about 33% of its value.

My bottom was also correct, at least for the month of January, between $8,500 – $12,000.

Coins to watch out for

Coins Price Feb 1st Price Jan 1st Gain/Loss
CLOAK/BTC 0.0010452156 0.00205623 -49.17%
SALT/BTC 0.0005761745 0.00090625 -36.42%
NEO/BTC 0.0137051773 0.00561443 144.11%
OMG/BTC 0.0015013879 0.00141483 6.12%

    All prices in BTC

If you had 1 BTC in the beginning of January and invested equally into each of these currencies, you have experienced a profit of 16% in BTC terms.

 

February Predictions

If in a bull market, everyone is an optimistic, in a bear market, everyone is a pessimistic. I have seen calls of a bottom until $5000. What seems weird to me is that we are seeing a semi-organized movement by governments and regulatory agencies worldwide to interfere with cryptoassets. VISA cancelled Wavecrest’s permit,  South Korea launched new regulation forbidding anonymous trading, Chinese government restricting mining, Venezuelan government downright extorting miners, Strape revoked support for Bitcoin payments, BitConnect got shut down and is being sued.

With that said, there are a lot of bullish signals, Robinhood registered over 1 million users for its cryptocurrency trading platform, KFC launched a Bitcoin bucket, WeChat is planning to launch a crypto exchange.

While everyone is panicking, most don’t try to see the reason behind all of this FUD. Historically, there has always been a dip on the beginning of the year (yeah, I didn’t know it either)

If you zoom out even more in these graphs, you will see that these crashes were tiny compared to what came afterwards.

My prediction is that we are very close to the bottom which I continue to think will be at $8,500.00. With that said, my confidence in the number is lower, and we could see Bitcoin at $7,000.00 in a worst case scenario. The reason my confidence has lowered is that most investors in cryptoassets are short-term guided. They invest between $1,000-20,000 and since cryptomarkets are very easy to buy and sell, if people think they can sell now (even if at a loss) and buy in a week or two at a cheaper price. This is a twisted ponzi scheme thinking in which the one that sells the lowest in the greatest fool.

I believe we will repeat the cycle presented in the 2016 chart where we see a spike in Bitcoin price in the last 2 weeks of the month.

Now, my main doubt right now is what will altcoins do. Traditionally, altcoins have:

Bitcoin rises Altcoins fall
Bitcoin falls Altcoins fall
Bitcoin sideways or gradual growth/decline Altcoins rise

However, in January, I saw a lot of altcoins making exponential growth (5-10x) while Bitcoin fell. Also, everytime Bitcoin bounced off support, altcoins thrived, mostly more than Bitcoin. This leads me to believe that

  1. a percentage of investors is hodling bitcoin and altcoins because they have no money to put in and bought at a high price
  2. a small percentage of investors are holding long-term
  3. a growing percentage of investors are holding Bitcoin in an effort to buy altcoins at a cheaper price.

If you have a lot of money in crypto, it makes no sense to cash out into USD right now due to a low BTC evaluation, but if you believe markets will do as they have done in the past year, where Bitcoin rises and altcoins fall. Having BTC set aside is a must to buy cheap.

 

Bitcoin Price Prediction (BPP)

 

Top 17 000 – 22 000
Bottom 7 000 – 8 500

 

Dates to watch out: 3rd week of February

Market sentiment: Stagnant then bullish

Things to watch out for: Futures market, Tether-Bitifinex

Coins to watch out for: BTC, LTC, XEM

 

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